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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts GDP  growth estimate for 2016-17 to 6.6% from its estimate of 7.6% due to demonetisation of high value currency notes. And the China's GDP growth estimate was raised for 2016-17 to 6.7% from its estimate of 6.5%. If the estimates are perceive then India risks losing the 'fastest growing major economy' tag. IMF estimates the economy to recover and grow by 7.2% in 2017-18, inert slower than the earlier forecast of 7.6%. In 2018-19, it’s estimates the Indian economy to grow by 7.7%.


Earlier in this month, the World Bank cuts the country's economic growth projection to 7% for 2016-17 from its previous estimate of 7.6%. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also lowered its GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal year to 7.1% from 7.6%. The Central Statistics Office estimates the economy to growth by 7.1% in 2016-17, lower than the previous estimate of 7.6%, this estimate does not consider the impact of demonetisation. Global growth for 2016 is now projected at 3.1%, in line with October 2016 estimate. Advanced economies are now projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017 and 2% in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2% points more respectively compared to the October estimate.
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was created under unexpected circumstances. The intention was felt to 'regulate the issue of bank notes and the custody of reserves with a view to securing monetary stability'. However, in the year 1929, the world had been hit by an striking economic crisis the 'Great Depression'. The monetary systems of the world were in confusion. There was no certain kind of monetary system was in existence in India. There fore it was decided to place a 'temporary provision' and that temporary provision was the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 ('the Act'). The India’s Central Bank established on 1st April 1935 under RBI Act 1934.
The RBI’s main objectives in 1934:
  • to keep the reserves
  • An static law and
  • to issue bank notes        
Under the Act there were innumerable of amendments, extensive powers were negotiated on the Reserve Bank. The word 'Independent' does not exists in the Act but, over the years, the principle of Central Bank sovereign has been raised to the level of an permanent law. According to the provisions of Section 7 of the Act, the central government can give such directions to the RBI as it may consider necessary in the interest of public, but such power has never been exercised in 83 years of the Act. There was been times when the central government and RBI did not see eye-to-eye. In a very closed economy and with little reserves, the RBI was known more as a banking regulator and fisted controller of foreign exchange than as an issuer of bank notes.

History of RBI
  • 1950-1960: In the 1950's the Indian Government, under its first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Developed a centrally planned economic policy that focused on the agricultural sector.
  • 1960-1969: The RBI was requested to establish and monitor a deposit insurance system. It should restore the trust in the national bank system and was initialized on 7th December 1961.
 Present Functions of RBI
  • Issue of currency
  • Development role
  • Banker to bank
  • Banker to government
  • Inflation control
  • Formulate monetary policy
  • Manager of foreign reserve
  • Clearing of house functions
  • Regulations of banking system
Structure of RBI
The Organisation and Management of RBI is Vested on the Central Board of Directors. It is responsible for the management of RBI. Central board of RBI Consists of 20 members. It is constituted as follow
a) One Governor
b) Four Deputy Governors
c) Fifteen Directors
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By Questioning his role in demonetisation, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), headed by KV Thomas (Congress leader) has asked Urjit Patel  (RBI Governor) a series of 10 questions about demonetisation and has asked him to appear before January 28. Demonetisation was announced on 8th November, 2016 and since then, the RBI has changed several rules for exchange, depositing and withdrawal of currency. The Opposition had deride the government in the Winter Session of Parliament because of persistent change of rules and regulations.


In the first people were allowed to take out only INR 2,000 notes from ATMS, then it was increased to INR 2,500 and has now been further increased to INR 4,500. According to ‘National Media’ Urjit Patel has asked, ‘Why have there been so many flip-flops in RBI regulations over the past two months..? Please give us the name of the RBI officer who came up with the idea to ink people for withdrawal…? Who drafted the notification on marriage related withdrawal…? If it was not the RBI that drafted these but the government, is the RBI now a department of Ministry of Finance..?  The PAC has also demanded to know the precise reason behind the decision of demonetisation of INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes. It has also asked if the RBI agreed to the minister Piyush Goel's statement that the decision of demonetisation of RBI's and the government merely implemented it.  And why the RBI declined to disclose the information under the RTI, citing fatuous reasons such as fear of personal injury..? Why is the RBI not providing information under RTI to queries that come..?  RBI Governor was asked according National Media. 
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India's Economic growth was anticipated to steady to 7.1% in the current fiscal year ending March 31 compared to 7.6% last year, the first indicator after the demonetisation. The estimates have been reduced in all sectors, except for agriculture. The data released on Friday by the 'Indian Central Statistics Office'. Following the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise move on November 8th to ban India's highest value bank notes out of circulation, which has swab outs 86% of the currency. 

The 'First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17' are based on sectoral data for only seven months i.e till October. Actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to achieve a level of INR 121.55 lakh crores. The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1% as compared to the growth rate of 7.6% in 2015- 16, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said. The CSO anticipates on national income is in line with the RBI estimates, which is too lowered the GDP growth probability to 7.1%.
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked all banks on to clinch that all the transactions at their branches and currency sternum are done under proper CCTV espionage to avert variance and promote transparency in transactions. RBI asked to conserve recordings of their operations from November 8th to December 30th. The RBI decided after the income tax department and investigating agencies found several bank officials across the nation appease in malpractices. Addressing in a press meet, SS Mundra (RBI Deputy Governor) said while banks have inoculate INR 4.61 Lakh Crores into the system,  that they collected old currency notes amounting to INR 12.44 lakh Crores till December 10th. Till now as many as 21.8 billion currency notes of various denominations have been issued, of which 20.1 billion were of INR 10, INR  20, INR 50 and INR 100 denominations. Around 1.7 billion of the notes issued were of INR 500 and INR 2,000 denominations, Mundra said.


The RBI has instructed that contrariety would be pursued through an internal audit mechanism. RBI supervisors are also carrying out similar operations on various data points of banks and due action will be taken whenever mistimed transactions are noticed, Mundra added. RBI has already mandated banks to maintain branch wise reports of counterfeit cash detected among specified currency  scrapped INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes  which are deposited till December 30, 2016. Banks also been asked to send it a report on counterfeit notes detected between November 10th and December 9th by Friday.
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Government Of India (GOI) today informed to Parliament that a decision has been taken to print new plastic currency notes and procurement of required material has started.  The printable banknotes based on plastic or polymer substrate. The process of procurement has been actuate, The Reserve Bank (RBI) was been planning to launch new plastic currency note after field of trials. In the year 2014, the government had informed in Parliament that one billion plastic notes of INR 10 Denomination would be introduced in the view of field trial in five selected cities for their geographical and climatic medley. The selected cities were Mysore, Kochi, Shimla, Jaipur and Bhubaneswar. Plastic notes have an average life span of about five years and are difficult to emulate. The another feature in currency notes made of plastic are cleaner than paper ones.
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will release new INR 20 and INR 50 notes in the Mahatma Gandhi of Series-2005. The new notes will have the signature of Urjit R Patel (RBI Governor). The Old banknotes of the two denominations are still valid. The reverse of the banknotes will contain year '2016' printed on, said by RBI in a statement. On the INR 20 denomination banknotes in the Mahatma Gandhi Series-2005, with inset letter 'L' in both the number panels. And the INR 50 denomination banknotes in the Mahatma Gandhi Series-2005, which will does't inset letter in both the number panels, bearing signature of Governor


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) move comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's  decision in the last month to scrap INR 500 Rupee and INR 1,000 Rupee banknotes as part of abolition on tax dodgers and counterfeiters has caused a currency gnaw in the nation where most people are paid in cash and buy what they need with cash. With a small stock of smaller notes available and new bills of INR 500 and INR 2,000 rupee in short supply, Indians are being forced to stand in queues outside banks and cash machines to change their old notes.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an unpredicted address to the nation on Tuesday, said that the nation was doing away with INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes in an effort to sieve out corruption, black money and in turn poverty and terrorism. PM Modi said that the government believes the time has come to ‘take a strong decision’ on pursue these problems, suggesting that fake notes from across the border were being used to fund terrorism in the nation.

How this will affect:
From midnight of November 8th INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes will be no longer be legal tender. Other currency notes  INR 10, INR 20, INR 50 and INR 100 are still valid as are all coins. And the all cashless transactions such as cards, cheques and demand drafts will continue as usual. ATM’s across the nation will be closed on November 9th and they will not function in parts of the country on November 10th, PM said. Banks will remain closed on November 9th.

How  to exchange your notes:
The currencies of INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes can be submitted to post offices and banks from November 10th till December 30 with an valid ID card such as a PAN card, passport or Aadhaar card. And those who are being unable to exchange their notes by December 30th will be allowed to declare them with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) till March 31th. There will be a spile of INR 20,000 on the amount of money that can be exchanged in a week and INR 10,000 in a day. In the airports tourists can change these notes.

The exceptions:
Prime Minister said there been made at places of particular importance where the INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes will be accepted for an additional 72 hours i.e till midnight on November 11th. This includes hospitals, railway ticket booking counters, government bus stands, and airports.

What's next Denominations:
The New notes of INR 2,000 and INR 500 will be circulated soon, PM Modi said and these will have limited circulation.

In the past:
Indian governments have demonetised currency notes in the past as well. According to the RBI INR 1,000 and INR 10,000 banknotes were demonetised in January 1946. Banknotes for INR 1,000, INR 5,000 and INR 10,000 were been re-introduced in 1954. INR 1,000, INR 5,000 and INR 10,000 were demonetised again in January 1978.

And the New:


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The Nation's huge lender State Bank Of India (SBI) on said it has consistently passed on RBI's rate cuts to borrowers and in further reduce the lending rate in the near term, benefiting auto and home loan seekers. State Bank of India (SBI) Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya has said that out of the 1.75 % rate cut by the RBI since January 2015, it has already passed on up to 0.95% to the borrowers. Of the 175 bps (1.75%) cut that the Reserve Bank (RBI) has done we as a bank have passed on 95 bps (0.95%). More will get passed on in the near term rather than in the longer term, Bhattacharya said in an interview to TV Channel. SBI might not have cut the interest rate by big dollops of 0.25%, she said, but the bank has been cutting the rate consistently on a month-on-month basis and has passed on up to 0.95% so far. 
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pc: facebook
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan will not continue at the central bank after his present term expires on September 4, 2016.

“I will be returning to academia when my term as Governor ends on September 4, 2016,” Mr. Rajan said in a note to RBI staffers.

The RBI has put out the note on its website.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that the government appreciates the good work done by Mr. Rajan and respects his decision to return to academia when the term ends.

Mr. Jaitley also said that a decision on successor of Mr. Rajan would be announced shortly.

“I am confident my successor will take us to new heights with your help. I will still be working with you for the next couple of months, but let me thank all of you in the RBI family in advance for your dedicated work and unflinching support. It has been a fantastic journey together!” Mr. Rajan says in the note.

The former chief economist of the IMF joined the central bank as Governor in 2013 and he was handed a three year term.

BJP MP Subramanian Swamy wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month urging not to extend Mr. Rajan's tenure.

Here is the full text of Mr.Rajan's message that was posted on the RBI site:

Dear Colleagues,

I took office in September 2013 as the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. At that time, the currency was plunging daily, inflation was high, and growth was weak. India was then deemed one of the “Fragile Five”. In my opening statement as Governor, I laid out an agenda for action that I had discussed with you, including a new monetary framework that focused on bringing inflation down, raising of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (B) deposits to bolster our foreign exchange reserves, transparent licensing of new universal and niche banks by committees of unimpeachable integrity, creating new institutions such as the Bharat Bill Payment System and the Trade Receivables Exchange, expanding payments to all via mobile phones, and developing a large loan data base to better map and resolve the extent of system-wide distress. By implementing these measures, I said we would “build a bridge to the future, over the stormy waves produced by global financial markets”.

Today, I feel proud that we at the Reserve Bank have delivered on all these proposals. A new inflation-focused framework is in place that has helped halve inflation and allowed savers to earn positive real interest rates on deposits after a long time. We have also been able to cut interest rates by 150 basis points after raising them initially. This has reduced the nominal interest rate the government has to pay even while lengthening maturities it can issue – the government has been able to issue a 40 year bond for the first time. Finally, the currency stabilized after our actions, and our foreign exchange reserves are at a record high, even after we have fully provided for the outflow of foreign currency deposits we secured in 2013. Today, we are the fastest growing large economy in the world, having long exited the ranks of the Fragile Five.

We have done far more than was laid out in that initial statement, including helping the government reform the process of appointing Public Sector Bank management through the creation of the Bank Board Bureau (based on the recommendation of the RBI-appointed Nayak Committee), creating a whole set of new structures to allow banks to recover payments from failing projects, and forcing timely bank recognition of their unacknowledged bad debts and provisioning under the Asset Quality Review (AQR). We have worked on an enabling framework for National Payments Corporation of India to roll out the Universal Payment Interface, which will soon revolutionize mobile to mobile payments in the country. Internally, the RBI has gone through a restructuring and streamlining, designed and driven by our own senior staff. We are strengthening the specialization and skills of our employees so that they are second to none in the world. In everything we have done, we have been guided by the eminent public citizens on our Board such as Padma Vibhushan Dr. Anil Kakodkar, former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and Padma Bhushan and Magsaysay award winner Ela Bhatt of the Self Employed Women’s Association. The integrity and capability of our people, and the transparency of our actions, is unparalleled, and I am proud to be a part of such a fine organization.

I am an academic and I have always made it clear that my ultimate home is in the realm of ideas. The approaching end of my three year term, and of my leave at the University of Chicago, was therefore a good time to reflect on how much we had accomplished. While all of what we laid out on that first day is done, two subsequent developments are yet to be completed. Inflation is in the target zone, but the monetary policy committee that will set policy has yet to be formed. Moreover, the bank clean up initiated under the Asset Quality Review, having already brought more credibility to bank balance sheets, is still ongoing. International developments also pose some risks in the short term.

While I was open to seeing these developments through, on due reflection, and after consultation with the government, I want to share with you that I will be returning to academia when my term as Governor ends on September 4, 2016. I will, of course, always be available to serve my country when needed.

Colleagues, we have worked with the government over the last three years to create a platform of macroeconomic and institutional stability. I am sure the work we have done will enable us to ride out imminent sources of market volatility like the threat of Brexit. We have made adequate preparations for the repayment of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (B) deposits and their outflow, managed properly, should largely be a non-event. Morale at the Bank is high because of your accomplishments. I am sure the reforms the government is undertaking, together with what will be done by you and other regulators, will build on this platform and reflect in greater job growth and prosperity for our people in the years to come. I am confident my successor will take us to new heights with your help. I will still be working with you for the next couple of months, but let me thank all of you in the RBI family in advance for your dedicated work and unflinching support. It has been a fantastic journey together!

With gratitude

Yours sincerely

Raghuram G. Rajan

Source@m.thehindu.com
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The nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be higher at 7.8 % in the current fiscal, whilst it will be 'uneven', brace largely by strong consumption and public expenditure, as per Development Bank of Singapore. For the 2015-16 fiscal, the GDP growth has been fasten at 7.6 %. We expect growth to gain velocity in 2016-17 fiscal, with headline real GDP up at 7.8 %. Though the January-March growth proceeded better than expected on real GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) basis, it obscure repressed weakness in fixed investments and in non-agricultural growth, the report said.

The economy expanded by 7.6 % in 2015-16, government presume the economy to grow by 7-7.75 % in the current fiscal. Regarding the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy pose, the report said that limited reduction in the rate of inflation is expected to narrow the room for further rate cuts.

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India's economy expanded by 7.6% in 2015-16 the fastest growth of the nation along with other developed nations. In the previous quarter the country Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 7.2% which is increase in the January to March was 7.9%. Good expansion in service industries like finance, trade and real estate continued to drive annual growth. Financial, real estate and professional services recorded 10.3%, manufacturing industry also recorded 9.3% an increase from 5.5% in the previous financial year. Hotels, trade, communication, transport and services related to broadcasting stud at 9% and 'mining and quarrying' at 7.4%.  Farm output expanded by 1.2%, having contracted 0.2% the year before.

The real per capita income also rise 6.2% to INR 77,435. Based on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference exchange rate of INR 67.20 to a dollar as on Tuesday, the country's gross domestic output was valued at $1.69 trillion.
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The Rajya Sabha on Wednesday approved a Bill that sets up a panel to decide interest rates, bringing the Reserve Bank of India's policymaking process in line with that of its major global counterparts.

The measure was part of a broader Finance Bill approved by the Lok Sabha last week, meaning it now becomes a law.

Currently, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan is the sole authority for monetary policy decisions, with assistance from a panel that is purely advisory.

Under the new law — and from a date that has yet to be set — a six-member monetary policy council will set interest rates by majority, with a casting vote for Rajan in the event of a tie.

Three members will be representatives from the government, and three from the RBI. The Bill also requires the RBI to review its inflation target every five years. There is currently no set timeframe for such reviews.

The reform is a big boost for Rajan, who since taking office in 2013 has been trying to align the manner in which India sets monetary policy with that of central banks in developed economies. @Reuters
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India is poised for a 'leap in production' and the government's Rhetoric on infrastructure creation is bearing results said by RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. Rajan said i think we are right for change, the government focus on improving logistics network, on infrastructure creation, some of the private sector companies like Snapdeal, Flipkart are creating a change in warehousing, logistics. Rajan was in a conversation with Singapore deputy prime minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Business Standard chairman TN Ninan at the CII organised Singapore Symposium 2016. Rajan said for first time in India's history the country is close to power sufficiency. I know the commentary on the fact that some demand is not being expressed. But we are close to sufficiency and given that we are using only 60 to 65 percent of the available capacity there is room for power production. 
Rajan said India could be on a verge of a revolution provided businesses are allowed to find their own way. That not planning too much the path that one has to go through, but instead create the kind of infrastructure the kind of business environment which will allow them to go where they desire to go.


(Also read about India recalls Hazrat Mahal’s contribution to freedom struggle-Click here )